June 12, 2025

US: Post-PPI May 2025 PCE Translation

We Expect 13ps for core PCE and 9bps for headline PCE.

Please, find below our translation of CPIs and PPIs into PCE price inflation for May. Compared to our post-CPI translation, the current translation is lower, as both medical and non-market prices were weaker than expected. Finally, our Q2 (QoQ saar) nowcast for core PCE is revised down to 2.1%.

We will update our models again today.

Figure 1. Post CPI and PPI Translation into PCE prices.

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