Independent Macroeconomic Research
Macro & Inflation Intelligence Built on Proprietary Models.
Underlying Inflation operates a continuously maintained platform of proprietary inflation, wage, policy, and macroeconomic models for institutional investors.
US CPI Forecasting Performance
Among the most accurate CPI nowcasts available to institutional investors.
Historical performance of our proprietary US CPI nowcasting framework on monthly CPI forecasts.
~2
bp
Historical standard error
monthly CPI
~7
bp
Mean absolute forecast error monthly CPI
US
CPI
Proprietary nowcasting
framework
21
Proprietary model families
71
Active area-model combinations
§ 01
Our platform
Our core business is building, running, and continuously improving proprietary macroeconomic models.
The platform currently spans 13 geographic areas, 21 model families, and 71 active area-model combinations. It produces more than 700 analytical charts, over 100 downloadable datasets, and a continuously updated map of inflation, wage, policy, and macro risks.
We operate a system of specialized frameworks covering near-term forecasting, underlying inflation, wage pressure, expectations, monetary-policy transmission, general-equilibrium dynamics, and high-frequency sectoral signals.
§ 02
Forecasting edge
Our forecasts are systematically evaluated against professional consensus estimates and market-implied expectations, including Kalshi.
Our proprietary US CPI models have outperformed both professional consensus forecasts and Kalshi-implied expectations.
The advantage comes from combining specialized model architectures, real-time information, recursive forecast evaluation, and disciplined uncertainty measurement.
The objective is to generate an earlier, more accurate, and more decision-relevant signal. Our approach combines macroeconomic structure with high-frequency statistical inference. We integrate economic reasoning, cross-sectional inflation analysis, dynamic factor models, data, and real-time filtering techniques to isolate underlying inflation signals from short-term noise.
Performance comparisons use matched forecast horizons and information sets available before each inflation release. Detailed methodology and supporting results are available to clients.
§ 03
How we work
We operate as a highly integrated external research partner for institutional investors.
The relationship is continuous, fast-moving, and adaptive. We work directly with portfolio managers, CIOs, macro strategists, and internal research teams — providing ongoing analysis, custom modelling, scenario construction, and rapid-response research as market conditions evolve.
The structure is deliberately selective. Engagements are limited in order to maintain depth, responsiveness, and analytical quality.
We maintain ongoing direct interaction with institutional investors across macro hedge funds, asset managers, and research teams through regular in-person meetings and continuous dialogue. Part of our value lies in aggregating and synthesizing these interactions into structured market intelligence that helps clients contextualize their own views against broader institutional thinking.
§ 04
Research services
Institutional-grade inflation and macroeconomic research combining economic modelling, proprietary statistical systems, alternative data analysis, and bespoke scenario design.
§ 05
Our clients
Our work supports research-driven investors operating in environments characterized by inflation uncertainty and policy volatility — institutions requiring independent thinking, technical sophistication, rapid analytical turnaround, and direct applicability to portfolio construction and risk management.
- Macro hedge funds
- Multi-asset managers
- Sovereign institutions
- Family offices
Contact
Discuss a tailored research engagement
For institutional research access, bespoke analysis, or potential collaboration inquiries.