July 16, 2025

US: Post-PPI June 2025 PCE Translation

We Expect 29ps for core PCE and 31bps for headline PCE.

Please, find below our translation of CPIs and PPIs into PCE price inflation for June. Compared to our post-CPI translation, the current translation is little changed, as an upward surpise in non-market prices was offset by lower than expected airfares.

We will update again our models early next week – we do not expect any meaningful change.

Figure 1. Post CPI and PPI Translation into PCE prices.

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Disclaimer

Trezzi consulting is a Swiss registered firm that offers independent economic and statistical consulting services. Trezzi consulting does not have access to any classified information of any central bank, including the Federal Reserve. All econometric and statistical models included in the packages are either developed in-house or they are based on publicly available documents such as papers and notes.