Services
Our services
Underlying Inflation develops and operates a proprietary platform of statistical models for inflation, wages, expectations, monetary policy, and macroeconomic forecasting.
The platform combines economic structure, machine learning, recursive forecast evaluation, and probabilistic inference. It is designed for institutional investors who require measurable forecasting performance rather than generic macro commentary.
Every engagement provides access to a continuously maintained analytical infrastructure spanning multiple economies, forecasting horizons, model classes, and data frequencies.
§ 01
Macroeconomic Models Platform
Our principal product is a continuously maintained platform of statistical forecasting models designed to estimate inflation and its underlying components across different horizons.
The model library includes machine learning systems, principal component models, dynamic factor models, common trend models, Bayesian specifications, structural macroeconomic models and probabilistic simulations. Different architectures are retained because their relative performance changes with the variable, the forecast horizon and the macroeconomic regime.
Each model converts large economic datasets into explicit and testable outputs. These include point forecasts, probability distributions, percentile ranges, forecast revisions, component contributions and measures of uncertainty.
The platform currently covers 13 geographic areas through more than 70 model and geography configurations, allowing investors to compare signals across countries without forcing every economy into the same specification.
§ 02
Alternative Data & Statistical Signals
We develop and maintain proprietary statistical frameworks designed to extract high-frequency inflation and macro signals from large and noisy datasets.
This includes inflation nowcasting systems, trimmed and filtered inflation measures, labor market indicators, cross-sectional price analysis, and model-based signal extraction techniques designed to identify turning points ahead of conventional macro releases.
The objective is to transform raw information into interpretable and decision-relevant macro signals.
§ 03
Scenario Design & Probabilistic Simulations
We construct bespoke macro scenarios tailored to specific investment questions, market exposures, and policy risks.
Scenarios are evaluated using model-based simulations combining economic structure with empirical calibration. This allows clients to compare alternative inflation paths, quantify macro sensitivities, estimate probability distributions, and evaluate asymmetric outcomes under changing policy and market conditions.
§ 04
Forecasting & Macro Modelling
We operate a broad set of macroeconomic and statistical models used to generate forward-looking inflation and macro forecasts.
Particular emphasis is placed on US inflation forecasting, where our proprietary CPI nowcasting framework has consistently delivered institutional-grade predictive accuracy with exceptionally low forecast error metrics.
Models are continuously recalibrated to evolving macro regimes and are designed to remain interpretable, adaptive, and operationally useful.
Our United States CPI models have beaten both the economist consensus and Kalshi prediction market forecasts in historical out of sample evaluation. Our United States CPI nowcasting framework has recorded a historical standard error of approximately 2 basis points for monthly CPI and a mean absolute forecast error of approximately 7 basis points in the evaluation currently presented on the platform.
§ 05
Integration with Investment Teams
Our work is designed to integrate directly into institutional decision processes.
We collaborate closely with portfolio managers and research teams, contributing real-time analysis, custom research, scenario testing, and model interpretation in a format aligned with internal workflows and investment timelines.
The objective is not simply to provide research, but to enhance internal macro capability with highly specialized external expertise.
§ 06
Research Review & Analytical Critique
We systematically review academic and non-academic macroeconomic research relevant for monetary policy and investment decisions.
This includes evaluating new inflation frameworks, labor market research, policy analysis, forecasting methodologies, and market narratives emerging from academia, central banks, financial institutions, and independent research providers.
The objective is not simply to summarize research, but to critically assess assumptions, empirical robustness, identification strategies, and practical investment relevance.
Clients use this process as an intellectual filtering mechanism in an environment increasingly saturated with low-signal macro commentary and weak empirical work.
Engage
Every engagement is built around your questions
Engagements are limited in order to maintain depth, responsiveness, and analytical quality.